NFL Football Picks – Revenge or not Revenge

I know you read about getting even quite a few time in sports betting, but does revenge, when it comes down to NFL picks, have whatever to do with making the right football picks?

Well, it does sometimes, other times it does not, just like in all other sports.

When looking at this kind of trends, i do it by starting with all games that suit that trend.

Taking a peek at last 20 years at teams that didn’t win in last match up with their opponent and were favorites in their last match up, you will observe that there’s no actual edge for teams that are on revenge. This is the fact in both situations whether last game was being held in current or prior years.

But lets have a look what goes on if this match should be be referred to as “dog revenge” i.e. if team lost that last game as a dog. It seems that underdogs get some advantage. (51.7% ATS). This comes as a stunner, don’t you think?

If we go on in our hunt for solid pro football picks, and look at teams that are on a double “underdog revenge” i.e. they lost last 2 games versus their opposition as a underdog, we get a profitable info: in 53.7% games, its gonna be smart move to put money on that team. Now this is even more stunning!

We must wonder doesn’t it work out like in other sports, when favs who lose get extra boost in next game? simply cause teams have small number of games. And they are not excited and fired up for a rematch for so much time has passed.

Why do previous underdogs become passionate about a rematch? The truth is they truly aren’t all that eager to get revenge. Because my conclusions are made watching a closing line odds, one and only explanation is: line movement. It is necessary for a line to move is just 1 point to come to this sort of gain. It is very possible because casual handicappers take too much into account prior team match ups.

This dead easy pro football system will give you 50-60 picks every season and you better have a good argument to oppose it.

Free sports picks
USS Picks – handicapping service

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Is it possible to make a good living from betting?

Well many betting professionals myself included are living proof that it is indeed possible to do just that, however success as a betting professional requires a lot of endeavour and a long term approach.

Betting for a living is not an easy career path to follow. There will be many sleepless nights and much disenchantment along the way. However provided you have an interest in betting, understand betting principles, are numerate, determined and posses the ability to become emotionally detached – then the goal of betting for a living is achievable.

“Is gambling for a living too risky for the average person?” you ask. Well the truth is, as betting professionals, we don’t really consider ourselves gamblers at all.

We like to think that we are on a par with Investor’s playing the stock market – selecting the right opportunities – when to bet and when not to bet. So operating a safe, reliable and profitable betting business has nothing to do with blind luck or chance; rather, it is the combination of our observations, form study, selectivity and intelligent decision-making. Additionally it is important that you thoroughly understand money management and posses the required discipline to bet with only a percentage of your total betting bank. By following such a course, betting professionals will make a living.

Like any self-employed individual, there are advantages and disadvantages in betting for a living. One of the advantages of this career path is that you have the opportunity to build the new business slowly in your spare time without giving up your day job. This approach will enable you to determine if & when the time is right to become a full time professional. However as with any new venture it will take time and dedication to succeed, so please don’t think for one minute that you are about to become a ‘betting pro’ overnight. Nothing could be further from the truth and you will need to take time serving your apprenticeship, making mistakes from which you will learn, while also becoming the master of your trade and capitalising from the errors you will have made along the way.

Thanks to the proliferation of the online betting exchanges and bookmakers, betting is now a worldwide industry. Thus another advantage of betting for a living is that y
1000
ou can now run your betting business from anywhere in the world and operate with minimal overheads. Finally betting is a truly recession proof industry with downturns in the economy having no effect on the betting exchange markets – even when money seems to be ‘tight’ betting markets are always awash with money.

Of course there are one or two disadvantages associated with betting for a living. Most notably this is tough work psychologically and your lifestyle will change dramatically with no more 9-5 days in the office, instead they will be replaced with long lonely hours, spent 7 days a week in front of your computer and TV screens with no work colleagues to interact with. Secondly, you and you alone will ultimately be responsible for placing bets and trades on the exchanges in order to ensure the success or failure of your financial future.

There are literally hundreds of sporting events available for betting on during any given afternoon and unlike the stock market where it can take days or weeks to receive settlement one way or the other, sports bets are settled within minutes of the event completing – often in minutes.

So your financial outcome is known within minutes of an event finishing. Therefore cash flow is always positive but bear in mind whenever you play a bad bet the impact on the cash flow is immediate, so good money management is therefore the ‘key’ to success in your new career and it remains an essential skill for the betting professional to master.

What really draws people to this profession though is the potential tax-free (in the UK!) return on investment. So just what kind of return can you expect? Anywhere between 15% and 25% of your annual betting turnover would be typical, even as much as 30% in a good year. Losing years are also very rare and I have not personally experienced many in my lifetime and I am now confident I will never experience another one again. I can thank the betting exchanges for that probability. The exchanges offer the professional opportunities for hedging so that we can take profits, reduce losses and maintain that all important positive cash flow.

Clearly for the individual with a strong enough mindset, capable of withstanding adversity there are distinct advantages to making a go of this new career. However it is important to ensure that you have enough capital to commence and also posses the required discipline to use a small percentage of that capital each time you place a bet, then provided you follow strict guidelines betting for a living can become a difficult but achievable goal!

By: Mike Marsland FCA

Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com

Mike Marsland FCA is the Internets #1 authority on strategic betting techniques. For free honest advice on Sports Betting Strategies and a complimentary download of his football correct score betting Ebook visit www.bigmikebetting.co.uk

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There are numerous instances when the superior team with good players had lost to a much weaker side only because the match did not hold much importance in front of them. An example of such a game was when West Germany lost to Portugal just because West Germany had qualified for the next round and the mach did not hold much significance to them. This game was lost on the home soil. So, the punters who had put their bets on the winning team as Germany lost quite an amount.

 

The above example is a classic case where the attitude of one team had cost them a game. It is never a wise decision to bet on a team that does not hold a game as a significant one. So, do not bet on the team that has the odds much higher than it deserves. So, bet on the sides that has a better attitude (even if they are placed lower in the table).

It is also to be seen if both the teams draw then the situation augurs into both of them qualifying for the next round. In this case it is very tough to put your bets because it is sort of a mutual agreement between the two sides to be on the safer side but the whole thing yields a huge loss for the betters. So, it is very important to watch out before football betting on such matches.

 

The above rule for football betting applies to everybody who would love to put their bets on a football match. So, judge the quality of a team based on the match condition and how they stand in the score board. There are numerous instances where a punter has lost a lot of money because they avoided taking stock of the team quality and attitude. So, the rip of the day is judge the attitude of a team before you put your bets.

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College Football Gambling Glossary

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I just need to know how the system of betting works. Also, please be specfic and describe detail. I need not just the name of the sport but the division For example: not juust basketball, but NCAA basketball or NBA basketball.

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Let’s try to separate betting myth from reality:

Myth #1: Betting lines are created to beat the public.

Reality: With the exception of the Super Bowl, the public plays almost no role in the linemaking process. The betting line is created and adjusted to meet the opinion of professional gamblers because it is they, not the casual fan, who bets serious money on the game.

Myth #2: Betting lines get balanced action.

Reality: While the goal is to construct a betting line that is of equal attraction to both favorite and underdog players, it rarely works out that way. More typically, a third of the games on the NFL schedule will have an insignificant amount of betting to cause much of a concern, another third will have active but balanced betting and the remaining third will have mostly one-way action. Traditionally, how the house fares on these lopsided games, called “decisions,” determines whether books win or lose.

Myth #3: Bookmakers have inside information that they use to establish “trap” games.

Reality: Nowadays, with nearly everyone having access to the Internet, it’s not so much the information as how well that data is interpreted. Bookmakers still may occasionally receive information regarding injuries or weather changes before players, but thanks to technology, that advantage often can be measured in seconds. Many years ago, if a bookmaker found out some significant nugget of data, he might try to lure the bettor to the “wrong” side. Those days are gone as inside information has all but ceased to exist and there is no such thing as a “trap” game.

Myth #4: Bettors have the edge early in the season because oddsmakers and bookmakers need more time to assess the teams.

Reality: More hours are spent analyzing the opening week of the NFL season than any other is. A detailed, in-depth assessment of NFL teams begins more than a month before the opening kickoff. While it’s true that teams often do not tip their hand during the preseason or against weak, non-divisional foes, players are in no better position to uncover this deception than are bookmakers. Historically, the first six weeks of the season have been very kind to bookmakers. That’s probably not just luck.

Myth #5: Professional gamblers pick their spots, betting just a couple of games a weekend.

Reality: Actually, sophisticated gamblers bet a lot of games. Think of it this way: If you’re a successful gambler, why risk serious money on just a few games where a freak play or an official’s call can make you a loser? The wider the net is tossed, the less of a factor luck becomes in the outcome.

Myth #6: Wiseguys bet more on games they really like.

Reality: More than any misconception, this myth probably best illustrates the difference between how professionals and amateurs think. A professional gambler believes that if a game is worth betting, it’s worth betting significantly. Professional bettors generally wager approximately the same amount on every game they play. The concept of a “best bet” is a media creation that is foreign to professional sports bettors. Professional gamblers believe all their bets are good ones; that’s why they make them.

Myth #7: Bettors can win by concentrating on a specific conference, division or region.

Reality: Not likely. It’s not enough to have one specific area of expertise because the NFL schedule demands that teams play half their games outside their own division. Knowing the strength of a team is worthless if you don’t also know the strength of the opponent.

Myth #8: Statistical wagering trends are important.

Reality: Technical analysis may be popular but it’s hardly meaningful. Professional bettors put little faith in the favorite/underdog, home/away pointspread analysis that so often is cited by gridiron “handicappers.” It’s just another method of backfitting dismissed as irrelevant by wiseguys.

Myth #9: It’s never wise to bet on rumors

Reality: Oh, yes it is. For example, if a professional bettor hears a rumor that Peyton Manning has the flu and is too ill to play quarterback for the Colts, he’ll quickly bet on Indianapolis’ opponent. If the rumor is correct, the gambler has stolen the line on a game that’s certain to change. If the rumor is false, then he’s played Indianapolis’ opponent at a fair price. Since most lines are accurate, the bettor takes little betting risk in chasing a rumor.

About The Author

By Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com/ . The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering betting: http://www.thegreek.com/ and all other major sports. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com/.

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